S&P 500 vs. Equal-Weight
Long-Term Growth Rates of Capitalism
From 2% to 40%: a survey of the major long-run growth rates in the global economy. Hover any line to see its meaning and compounding math. Source: @WangYueInvest
Nasdaq Composite · Long-Term Trend
Monthly closing levels since 1971. Toggle Price, Log, or Percent views.
Dow Jones · A Century of Returns
100 years of monthly closing levels. Toggle Price, Log, or Percent views.
Nasdaq Composite Bull/Bear Cycles
±20% defines bull vs. bear. Bull markets shown above (log-compressed), bears below (percent). Labels show actual returns.
S&P 500 Annual Returns
Annual returns since 1928. A yearly view of the long-run risk-return distribution.
S&P 500 Annual Return Distribution
Distribution of annual total returns (including dividends) since 1928. Average is ~10%, yet individual years rarely cluster near the mean.
S&P 500 Holding-Period Annualized Returns
Annualized return from the X-axis buy year through the Y-axis sell year, based on year-end levels (excluding dividends).
S&P 500 Return Composition
Annual breakdown 1999–2025. Total Return = Price Return + Dividend Return + Net Buyback Yield.
S&P 500 Drawdowns from All-Time High
Daily drawdown from the prior all-time high, classified into five severity buckets.
| Period | S&P High | S&P Low | Days to Low | Decline | Days to New High | Category | Trigger |
|---|
S&P 500 Intrayear Max Drawdown vs. Full-Year Return
Adds perspective to each year: intrayear max drawdown, full-year return, and number of new highs.
S&P 500 Volatility
20-day and 60-day annualized volatility. Red bands mark high-volatility phases when either measure crosses 30%.
Monthly Return Statistics
Monthly returns since 2000, with up-probability for each calendar month.
VIX & S&P 500
S&P 500 on log scale. Red bands mark panic phases where VIX stays above 30.
Index Fear vs Single-Stock Fear (VIX / VIXEQ)
VIX measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 as a whole. VIXEQ, launched by CBOE in late 2024, can be read as the "single-stock fear index" — it reflects the average implied volatility of each S&P 500 constituent on its own.
Buffett Indicator
Total Market Cap / (GDP + Fed Balance Sheet) — Modified Buffett Indicator.
The original indicator (TMC/GDP) was famously called by Buffett in 2001 "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." The modified version adds Fed total assets in the denominator to absorb the QE-era liquidity expansion: central-bank balance-sheet growth pumps liquidity that lifts valuations, and the original measure would mistakenly flag this "printed-money market cap" as "significantly overvalued."
S&P 500 Shiller PE (CAPE)
Shiller PE uses 10-year inflation-adjusted average earnings as the denominator, smoothing cyclical swings and making it well-suited for tracking long-term valuation extremes.
S&P 500 Market Breadth
Share of constituents at a 52-week high (industry-standard definition).
AIAE · Average Investor Equity Allocation
Equity market cap / (Equity market cap + Bonds + Cash supply). Quarterly since 1945. Source: Alpha Architect 2021.
In plain terms, AIAE measures what share of total household wealth is currently allocated to equities. Unlike PE — which asks "are stocks expensive?" (price ÷ earnings) — AIAE asks "how full are investors of stocks?" (equity holdings ÷ total assets). When everyone is stuffed to the gills with equities, there are only two ways for the allocation to come back down: investors must buy more bonds, or stocks must fall. Empirical work shows AIAE outperforms CAPE and Tobin's Q at predicting 10-year forward returns: AIAE hit all-time highs at the 1929 / 2000 / 2007 tops and all-time lows at the 1932 / 1982 / 2009 bottoms.
S&P 500 Earnings Per Share
TTM EPS
S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE)
Annual ROE plotted against the long-term average.
Rolling Returns
Annualized N-year trailing return at each point in time, based on monthly data since 1928.
S&P 500 Bull/Bear Cycles
±20% defines bull vs. bear. Bull markets shown above (log-compressed), bears below (percent). Labels show actual returns.
Magnificent Seven & Custom Mag 7 Index
Sector Exposure
S&P 500 weight structure by GICS sector.
Constituent Changes
Recent index reconstitutions compiled from S&P Dow Jones Indices official announcements.
| Effective Date | Added | Removed | Trigger | Type |
|---|
Methodology
S&P 500 inclusion criteria, weighting, and rebalancing mechanics.
S&P 500 Constituent Landscape
X-axis: market cap ($B). Y-axis: trailing 1-year return. Weight and price details in the table below.
| Company | Ticker | Weight | Price |
|---|
Nasdaq 100 Annual Returns
Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) annual returns since 1986, on a price-return basis (excluding dividends).
Nasdaq 100 Annual Return Distribution
Each year since 1986 placed into one of 11 return buckets. Over 41 years, the Nasdaq 100 has delivered five years above 50% (1991/1998/1999/2009/2023) and one year below -40% (2008) — a noticeably fatter-tailed distribution than the S&P 500.
Nasdaq 100 Holding-Period Annualized Returns
Each cell shows the annualized return from buying in the X-axis year and selling in the Y-axis year. A 2000-top buy did not break even until 2014. The diagonal shows single-year returns.
Nasdaq 100 Return Composition
QQQ annual breakdown since 2000: Price Return + Dividend Return + Net Buyback Yield. Dividends contribute very little (Nasdaq constituents skew toward growth names). Buyback yield is aggregated from yfinance annual cash-flow data on the top-25 constituents, weighted, with coverage limited to the past six years (2021+).
Nasdaq 100 Drawdowns from All-Time High
Daily drawdown from the prior all-time high. The 2000–2002 dot-com bust cumulated a -82.9% drawdown that took 4,775 days (13 years) to recover.
| Period | Nasdaq High | Nasdaq Low | Days to Low | Decline | Days to New High | Category |
|---|
Nasdaq 100 Intrayear Max Drawdown vs. Full-Year Return
Annual peak-to-trough drawdown vs. full-year return, plus number of intrayear new highs (1986+). 83% of years end positive; average intrayear drawdown is -19.5%, larger than the S&P 500.
Nasdaq 100 Volatility
20-day / 60-day rolling annualized volatility. Nasdaq's long-term average is ~25%, above the S&P 500's ~20%.
Nasdaq 100 Monthly Returns
Year-by-month heatmap of monthly returns. The top row shows historical up-probability for each month.
Nasdaq 100 & VXN
VXN is CBOE's Nasdaq-100 equivalent of VIX (2001+). NDX level and daily VXN are plotted together, with periods above 30 highlighted.
| Range | Interpretation | Market State | Historical Examples |
|---|---|---|---|
| VXN < 15 | Extreme low volatility | Complacency / quiet bull market; implied vol compressed to historical lows | Late-2006 bull market, 2017 low-vol year, mid-2024 |
| 15 ≤ VXN < 25 | Normal range | Around Nasdaq's long-term average; suitable for accumulation or observation | Most trading days fall in this range |
| 25 ≤ VXN < 40 | Elevated caution | Tense sentiment, rising selling pressure; buyers cautious | Most of the 2022 bear market, Q4 2018, 2025 tariff panic |
| 40 ≤ VXN < 60 | Panic | Extreme stress, often accompanied by sharp declines; frequently near bottoms | Mid-2008 financial crisis, 2011 euro debt crisis, Q4 2018 |
| VXN ≥ 60 | Extreme panic / crash | Liquidity crisis, market-maker reverse quoting; historically marks V-shaped reversal opportunities | Oct 2008 Lehman, Mar 2020 COVID (peak 85.47) |
VXN is the CBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index, the Nasdaq-100 counterpart to VIX, measuring expected 30-day implied volatility of the Nasdaq 100. Data starts 2001-01-23, calculated in real time by CBOE. This panel pulls daily historical values via yfinance ^VXN.
Nasdaq 100 Rolling Returns
Annualized N-year trailing return at each point in time, based on daily data since 1985.
Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth
Share of constituents at a 52-week high (industry-standard definition).
Nasdaq 100 Constituent Return Scatter
X-axis: YTD return. Y-axis: trailing 1-year return. Bubble size = QQQ weight. Color = sector.
Nasdaq 100 Cumulative Weights
QQQ top-25 actual holdings: black line shows cumulative coverage, grey bars show individual weights.
Nasdaq 100 Constituent Weight Distribution
Donut chart shows top-15 actual weights vs. the aggregate weight of the rest. Full constituent list available in the table below.
| Company | Ticker | Sector | QQQ Weight | Price | 1Y Return | Dividend Yield |
|---|