S&P 500 vs. Equal-Weight
Black: S&P 500 (since 1928) · Blue: Equal-Weight RSP (since 2003) · dual Y-axes; ratio view = market-cap ÷ equal-weight, May 2003 = 1, daily
ratio view: red bands = bear markets (≥20%), blue bands = corrections (10–20%), derived from drawdown table · the original starts in 1990; the free source only has RSP from 2003, start caliber differs
Long-Term Growth Rates of Capitalism
From 2% to 40%: a survey of the major long-run growth rates in the global economy. Hover any line to see its meaning and compounding math. Source: @WangYueInvest
Long-Run Gains of Major USD Asset Classes
1995-01 = 1 · Log scale · Monthly
Six legs = home prices / S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100 / gold / 10Y zero-coupon / nominal GDP · Gray bands = NBER recessions
S&P 500 with 3%–11% CAGR Growth Paths
Dec 1935 = 1 · log scale
blue = total return with dividends reinvested (self-computed monthly), red = price-only index · gray bars = recessions
The Nine Bull Markets Since 1966
X axis = trading days since each run started (weekdays incl. holidays)
Y = cumulative percent change · one colored line per run (by era), red = in progress
S&P 500 Sub-industries / S&P 500 Relative Strength
11 GICS sectors vs the S&P 500, June 2018 = 100 (weekly)
The legend square is the toggle (checked = shown normally, unchecked = translucent), Information Technology checked by default; unchecked sectors stay visible but translucent in both chart and legend · the 100 dashed line = in line with the index · the original uses LSEG sector indices ÷ S&P 500 (from 1990); the free source uses 11 SPDR ETFs from 2018
Geopolitical Crises
The S&P 500 and 15 geopolitical crises (log scale, since 1927)
Legend dimensions: pink bands = bear markets (default on), grey bands = NBER recessions (default off; checking swaps the price line to monthly) · events merged into one set of 15: the bear view decides coverage and positions, the recession view decides style (red line + red box, no date inside) · this chart starts Dec 1927 (the original starts 1921, monthly before 1964) · Yom Kippur War set to 1973-10-06 by history
Bull & Bear Market Drawdowns
Bear length, decline, full-history bands, drawdowns from ATH, and intrayear max drawdown since 1928
Six charts: (1) history of bear length (2) history of bear decline (3) full-history price with bands (red = bear ≥20%, blue = correction 10–20%) (4) drawdown from all-time high (5) drawdown-event scatter · every ≥10% since 1928 (6) intrayear max drawdown vs full-year return · caliber = peak→trough, close-to-close; site 19 bears ≠ original 23 (1930s consecutive declines merged) · anchors match: 2000 = 929 days/−49.1%, 2007 = 517 days/−56.8%
X: days to trough (log scale) · Y: decline · colors = severity category · deeper drawdowns sit lower
| Period | S&P High | S&P Low | Days to Low | Decline | Days to New High | Category | Trigger |
|---|
S&P 500 Bull/Bear Cycles
±20% defines bull vs. bear. Bull markets shown above (log-compressed), bears below (percent). Labels show actual returns.
Fed Hikes & the S&P 500
Since 1954 (start of the fed funds rate data). Vertical shading = Fed hike announcement day. Real rate = fed funds rate − CPI YoY: red = positive (money tight), blue = negative (money easy). Black dashed lines mark 0% and +3% (the +3% “tight money” line was exceeded only in 1969–2007).
Path to New Highs
From post-recovery high to next new high since 1964 (log scale)
Light-blue bands = "first close above the prior high after a ≥20% bear trough → the peak before the next ≥20% bear"; red labels = days/gain (calendar) · all 8 bands match the original exactly (0 days / ≤0.05pp); band 9 is ongoing since 2024-01-19 · the original's red arrow segments are simplified to red labels
Nasdaq Composite · Long-Term Trend
Monthly closing levels since 1971 · Toggle Price, Log or Percent views
Dow Jones · A Century of Returns
100 years of monthly closing levels · Toggle Price, Log or Percent views
Nasdaq Composite Bull/Bear Cycles
±20% defines bull vs. bear. Bull markets shown above (log-compressed), bears below (percent). Labels show actual returns.
S&P 500 Annual Returns
Annual returns since 1928. A yearly view of the long-run risk-return distribution.
S&P 500 Annual Return Distribution
Distribution of annual total returns (including dividends) since 1928. Average is ~10%, yet individual years rarely cluster near the mean.
S&P 500 Holding-Period Annualized Returns
Annualized return from the X-axis buy year through the Y-axis sell year, based on year-end levels (excluding dividends).
S&P 500 Return Composition
Annual breakdown 1999–2025. Total Return = Price Return + Dividend Return + Net Buyback Yield.
S&P 500 Volatility
20-day and 60-day annualized volatility. Red bands mark high-volatility phases when either measure crosses 30%.
Monthly Return Statistics
Monthly returns since 2000, with up-probability for each calendar month.
VIX & S&P 500
S&P 500 on log scale. Red bands mark panic phases where VIX stays above 30.
Index Fear vs Single-Stock Fear (VIX / VIXEQ)
VIX measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500; VIXEQ launched by CBOE in late 2024
can be read as the "single-stock fear index" — it reflects the average implied volatility of each S&P 500 constituent on its own.
Buffett Indicator
Total Market Cap / (GDP + Fed Balance Sheet) — Modified Buffett Indicator.
The original indicator (TMC/GDP) was famously called by Buffett in 2001 "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." The modified version adds Fed total assets in the denominator to absorb the QE-era liquidity expansion: central-bank balance-sheet growth pumps liquidity that lifts valuations, and the original measure would mistakenly flag this "printed-money market cap" as "significantly overvalued."
Hindenburg Omen · Breadth Divergence Warning
S&P 500 adaptation
5 conditions must trigger on the same day.
The Hindenburg Omen: this panel substitutes S&P 500 constituents for the full-NYSE original
developed by Jim Miekka in the 1990s; the original uses the entire NYSE (often criticized as polluted by foreign stocks, small caps, and bond funds), sidestepping that pollution.
S&P 500 Shiller PE (CAPE)
Shiller PE uses 10-year inflation-adjusted average earnings as the denominator, smoothing cyclical swings and making it well-suited for tracking long-term valuation extremes.
S&P 500 Market Breadth
Share of constituents at a 52-week high (industry-standard definition).
AIAE · Average Investor Equity Allocation
Equity market cap / (Equity market cap + Bonds + Cash supply). Quarterly since 1945. Source: Alpha Architect 2021.
In plain terms
AIAE measures what share of total household wealth is currently allocated to equities. Unlike PE — which asks "are stocks expensive?" (price ÷ earnings) — AIAE asks "how full are investors of stocks?" (equity holdings ÷ total assets). When everyone is stuffed to the gills with equities, there are only two ways for the allocation to come back down: investors must buy more bonds, or stocks must fall. Empirical work shows AIAE outperforms CAPE and Tobin's Q at predicting 10-year forward returns: AIAE hit all-time highs at the 1929 / 2000 / 2007 tops and all-time lows at the 1932 / 1982 / 2009 bottoms.
S&P 500 Earnings Per Share
TTM EPS (trailing 12-month; multpl source basis)
inflation-adjusted / real current dollars; shown as published, no conversion; source lags 2–3 months.
S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE)
Annual ROE plotted against the long-term average.
Rolling Returns
Annualized N-year trailing return at each point in time, based on monthly data since 1928.
Magnificent Seven & Custom Mag 7 Index
Constituent Changes
Recent index reconstitutions compiled from S&P Dow Jones Indices official announcements.
| Effective Date | Added | Removed | Trigger | Type |
|---|
Methodology
S&P 500 inclusion criteria, weighting, and rebalancing mechanics.
Sector Exposure
S&P 500 weight structure by GICS sector.
S&P 500 Constituent Landscape
X-axis: YTD return. Y-axis: trailing 1-year return. Bubble size = index weight. Color = sector group. Weight and price details in the table below.
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Weight | Price |
|---|
Nasdaq 100 Annual Returns
Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) annual returns since 1986, on a price-return basis (excluding dividends).
Nasdaq 100 Annual Return Distribution
Each year since 1986 placed into one of 11 return buckets. Over 41 years, the Nasdaq 100 has delivered five years above 50% (1991/1998/1999/2009/2023) and one year below -40% (2008) — a noticeably fatter-tailed distribution than the S&P 500.
Nasdaq 100 Holding-Period Annualized Returns
Each cell shows the annualized return from buying in the X-axis year and selling in the Y-axis year. A 2000-top buy did not break even until 2014. The diagonal shows single-year returns.
Nasdaq 100 Return Composition
QQQ annual breakdown since 2000: Price Return + Dividend Return + Net Buyback Yield
Dividends contribute very little (Nasdaq constituents skew toward growth names). Buyback yield is aggregated from yfinance annual cash-flow data on the top-25 constituents weighted, with coverage limited to the past six years (2021+).
Nasdaq 100 Drawdowns from All-Time High
Daily drawdown from the prior all-time high. The 2000–2002 dot-com bust cumulated a -82.9% drawdown that took 4,775 days (13 years) to recover. The scatter covers every ≥10% drawdown since 1985.
Nasdaq 100 Drawdown Events Scatter · every ≥10% drawdown since 1985
X: days to trough (log scale) · Y: decline · colors = severity category · deeper drawdowns sit lower
| Period | Nasdaq High | Nasdaq Low | Days to Low | Decline | Days to New High | Category |
|---|
Nasdaq 100 Intrayear Max Drawdown vs. Full-Year Return
Annual peak-to-trough drawdown vs. full-year return, plus number of intrayear new highs (1986+)
83% of years end positive; average intrayear drawdown is -19.5%, larger than the S&P 500.
Nasdaq 100 Volatility
20-day / 60-day rolling annualized volatility. Nasdaq's long-term average is ~25%, above the S&P 500's ~20%.
Nasdaq 100 Monthly Returns
Year-by-month heatmap of monthly returns. The top row shows historical up-probability for each month.
Nasdaq 100 & VXN
VXN is CBOE's Nasdaq-100 equivalent of VIX (2001+). NDX level and daily VXN are plotted together, with periods above 30 highlighted.
| Range | Interpretation | Market State | Historical Examples |
|---|---|---|---|
| VXN < 15 | Extreme low volatility | Complacency / quiet bull market; implied vol compressed to historical lows | Late-2006 bull market, 2017 low-vol year, mid-2024 |
| 15 ≤ VXN < 25 | Normal range | Around Nasdaq's long-term average; suitable for accumulation or observation | Most trading days fall in this range |
| 25 ≤ VXN < 40 | Elevated caution | Tense sentiment, rising selling pressure; buyers cautious | Most of the 2022 bear market, Q4 2018, 2025 tariff panic |
| 40 ≤ VXN < 60 | Panic | Extreme stress, often accompanied by sharp declines; frequently near bottoms | Mid-2008 financial crisis, 2011 euro debt crisis, Q4 2018 |
| VXN ≥ 60 | Extreme panic / crash | Liquidity crisis, market-maker reverse quoting; historically marks V-shaped reversal opportunities | Oct 2008 Lehman, Mar 2020 COVID (peak 85.47) |
VXN is the CBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index, the Nasdaq-100 counterpart to VIX, measuring expected 30-day implied volatility of the Nasdaq 100. Data starts 2001-01-23, calculated in real time by CBOE. This panel pulls daily historical values via yfinance ^VXN.
Nasdaq 100 Rolling Returns
Annualized N-year trailing return at each point in time, based on daily data since 1985.
Fed Hikes & the Nasdaq 100
Since Oct 1985 (index inception). Vertical shading = Fed hike announcement day. Real rate = fed funds rate − CPI YoY: red = positive (money tight), blue = negative (money easy). Black dashed lines mark 0% and +3% (the +3% “tight money” line was exceeded only in 1985–2007).
Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth
Share of constituents at a 52-week high (industry-standard definition).
Nasdaq 100 Constituent Return Scatter
X-axis: YTD return. Y-axis: trailing 1-year return. Bubble size = QQQ weight. Color = sector.
Nasdaq 100 Constituent Weight Distribution
Donut chart shows top-15 actual weights vs. the aggregate weight of the rest. Full constituent list available in the table below.
| Company | Ticker | Sector | QQQ Weight | Price | 1Y Return | Dividend Yield | 1Y Trend |
|---|
Nasdaq 100 Sector Mix
QQQ holding weights by sector (StockAnalysis disclosed basis).
CNN Fear & Greed Index
CNN Business official methodology · 7 equal-weighted components · 0—100 · Daily since 2011
S&P 500 overlay (right axis) · Five bands from Extreme Fear (bottom) to Extreme Greed · Switch to current component scores
• The CNN Fear & Greed Index combines seven key indicators: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put/call options sentiment, market volatility, safe-haven demand and junk bond demand; each is scored separately and then averaged into the total score.
• 0 - 25 (Extreme Fear): investors are overly worried; this is often a buy signal after an oversold bounce.
• 25 - 45 (Fear): risk appetite is subdued and trading is relatively cautious.
• 45 - 55 (Neutral): bulls and bears are balanced, waiting for a catalyst to pick a direction.
• 55 - 75 (Greed): sentiment is buoyant and money is accelerating into riskier assets.
• 75 - 100 (Extreme Greed): the market is in a FOMO frenzy; beware of a pullback at any time.
AAII US Individual Investor Sentiment
AAII weekly survey · Bullish / neutral / bearish shares · Since 1987 · Weekly
Three-line ratio by default · Switch to the bull-bear spread
• The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has been published weekly since 1987 by the American Association of Individual Investors, measuring the share of retail investors who are bullish, neutral or bearish on US stocks over the next six months — one of the longest sentiment datasets in existence.
• Voting opens every Thursday 00:01 ET through the following Wednesday 23:59 ET; results are released on AAII's website each Thursday and published in Barron's.
• The historical average for bullish sentiment is about 37.5%; readings well above that (typically more than one standard deviation) signal warming retail optimism.
• The historical average for bearish sentiment is about 31%; persistently elevated readings, especially above 40%–45%, often coincide with market bottoms and subsequent rallies.
• The historical average for neutral sentiment is about 31.5%; high readings reflect wait-and-see uncertainty, while low readings often accompany a polarised market where investors are forced to pick a side.
• The bull-bear spread = bullish − bearish, with a historical average of about +6.5 percentage points; positive means optimism dominates, negative means pessimism dominates.
• AAII is often used as a contrarian indicator: extreme retail pessimism tends to mark bottoms and extreme optimism tends to mark tops. Since 1987, when bearish readings have been more than two standard deviations above the historical average, the S&P 500 has typically delivered excess returns over the following 6–12 months.
• Sentiment data should not be used in isolation; combine it with quantitative screening, fundamentals and asset allocation.
• Unlike Investors Intelligence (which surveys investment newsletter editors and leans trend-following), AAII captures retail psychology, so extreme readings have higher contrarian value.
• The CNN Fear & Greed Index aggregates seven market signals and leans short-term momentum; NAAIM measures active fund positioning, and high exposure combined with extreme AAII pessimism often marks institutional accumulation after retail panic.
• Used together they are more complete: AAII as a medium-term contrarian signal, Fear & Greed for short-term sentiment, and NAAIM for professional positioning.
NAAIM Exposure Index: Active Managers' Mood
Average US equity exposure of active managers · -200%—200% · Weekly
Dashed lines = interquartile range · Series ends 2026/07/29 (official feed now subscription-only)
• Published by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, a weekly survey of members' average equity exposure.
• Values range from -200% to 200%. A reading of -200% means extreme panic and leveraged shorting.
• A reading of -100% means panic and fully short; 0% means the market is balanced between longs and shorts.
• A reading of 100% means strong optimism and fully invested.
• A reading of 200% means euphoria and leveraged long.
US Misery Index
Unemployment + CPI YoY · FRED, seasonally adjusted · Since 1948 · Monthly
Two stacked areas are the components, black line is the total · Gray bands = NBER recessions
• The Misery Index is the sum of US CPI year-over-year growth and the unemployment rate, used to gauge the economic pressure on households.
• The higher the reading, the greater the combined inflation and unemployment burden — the more "miserable" people feel.
• The lower the reading, the healthier the economy and the more stable employment.
Mainstream Style ETFs · Panorama
Trailing 10 years · Total return (dividends reinvested)
Base = 100 · Log scale
| Ticker | CAGR | Max DD | Volatility | Sharpe | Calmar |
|---|
Style ETFs · Risk-Return Plane
Trailing 10 years · X = Annualized volatility
Y = Annualized return · Gray dashed = iso-Sharpe rays (slope = Sharpe)
Equity · Bond · Hybrid Fund Flows
ICI weekly aggregates covering 98% of long-term mutual funds + ETFs. Green = net inflow, red = net outflow.
Domestic vs World Equity Fund Flows
Net flows into US domestic-equity vs world-equity funds. The gap is the resource-flow thermometer for "American exceptionalism".
Money Market Fund Assets · Cash Reservoir
Total Net Assets (TNA). Long history = FRED Z.1 Flow of Funds MMMFFAQ027S (quarterly from 1974 Q1)
Recent = ICI weekly xls, stacked by Government / Prime / Tax-Exempt.
Active vs Index Fund Flows
ICI monthly: net flows into actively-managed vs passive index funds. A monthly slice of the "active → passive migration".
Index Share · Passive as % of Total TNA
Index funds as a share of total TNA, by category (Domestic / World / Bond / Hybrid).
Who Owns US Equities · Ownership Breakdown
Fed Z.1 Financial Accounts · Corporate Equities
Quarterly from 1945-Q4 · 100% normalized · Household direct ownership computed as residual (Total − all sectors), per Fed Guide to Financial Accounts.